A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
